As climate change has intensified, extreme weather events, shifting temperatures and unpredictable rainfall have disrupted global food supply chains, threatening the stability of everything from staple crops to the cans on supermarket shelves.

In the years to come, the effects of climate change on the price and availability for a variety of foods are going to be substantial, says food scientist Dr. Bryan Quoc Le. 

"It's going to be more difficult to grow anything," he warns, using natural vanilla as just one example, of which the vast majority comes from Madagascar. There, the increasing frequency of tropical cyclones has devastated farms in recent years. "As weather patterns become more erratic, harvests will continue to dwindle or experience unpredictable supply over the coming years." Le says that longer summers and shorter winters brought on by rising global temperatures are also likely to make blights and pestilence far more common, given that winter can be a critical period for killing off pests sensitive to colder weather.

Already in 2025, we've seen the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the price and availability of essential foods. In the U.S., extreme weather across the country led to a shift in the migratory patterns of birds, exacerbating the spread of avian flu, and eventually driving egg prices to record levels, as farms were forced to cull millions of egg-laying hens. In Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana — where 60% of the world's cocoa is produced — months of unseasonably dry weather saw global cocoa production fall by 14% in the 2023-24 growing period, causing Oreo parent company Mondelēz International to warn of "unprecedented cost inflation" for the crop as a result.

The effects of more intense droughts and dryer weather aren't exactly a new development either, says Amy Barnes, the head of sustainability and climate change strategy for insurance broker and risk advisor Marsh. As Taiwan faced its worst drought in nearly a century in 2023, the country's government began paying farmers not to plant rice, in order to conserve water for semiconductor manufacturers. Years before that, in California, wildfires brought on by dry conditions in Napa and Sonoma damaged an estimated 500 vineyards, and led to roughly $75 million in economic losses for the region's wine industry.

Barnes notes that some experts, including climate advocate and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, have even theorized that climate change indirectly contributed to the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, after historic droughts in the Middle East and North Africa from 2006 to 2010 — and the ensuing Arab Spring protests — pushed millions of refugees into Europe, which then led to concerns from the U.K. over Europe's ability to take in the flood of migrants. 

"The threat comes from so many different places," Barnes says. "We need to look at the interconnectivity between climate systems and nature systems, and how that could have a negative spiral impact." 

These disruptions are already forcing shifts in agricultural practices, with farmers adapting to the new reality by experimenting with genetically-engineered crops resistant to droughts, managing water usage with carefully crafted irrigation schedules, and scaling back the use of pesticides, which are known to contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, major food corporations have sought creative solutions of their own, including coffee company Nespresso, which partnered with insurance provider Blue Marble to provide so-called "micro-insurance" policies to coffee growers in Colombia, Indonesia, Kenya and Zimbabwe. These offer payouts to keep farms in business after extreme weather events.

"I would encourage businesses that aren't thinking about climate change and its impacts to start thinking now," says meteorologist Renny Vandewege, the general manager for supply chain weather data company DTN.

Read More: Navigating Extreme Weather Events and Disruptions: A Guide for Shippers

Given that major weather events are likely to increase in frequency, Vandewege says, it will become more important than ever for farmers and corporations to be watchful for signs of potential climate disruptions, whether it's lengthier hurricane seasons along the Gulf Coast impacting orange farmers, or wildfires in California that could affect the agricultural output of a state that produces nearly a third of the country's vegetables.

"As we get into patterns in history of how we work on our fields, there just might have to be adjustments," he predicts. "Looking ahead at what these new risks are allows us to prepare, and start to look at ways to mitigate."

Agricultural supply chains as a whole are also particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, given that just 15 crops provide 90% of the non-animal-based calories consumed by the world, says Joe Adamski, the senior director for procurement service provider ProcureAbility. That's in addition to the fact that the agricultural industry is responsible for 30% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, according to researchers from Columbia University. Adamski says all of that creates a "huge risk exposure" for the world's supply of crops, especially with the global population expected to approach 10 billion people by 2050. Making sure we can feed that population "isn't negotiable," he adds, stressing the need to balance increased food production with sustainable farming practices that won't do further harm to the environment. 

"Finding ways to increase, or at least maintain, crop yields while addressing the climate impacts agriculture brings will be essential to navigating our food needs over the next century," he says.